Load/Unload Response Ratio and Stress Accumulation Model before Large Earthquakes
详细信息
- 责任者：Yu Huaizhong (China Earthquake Network Center ; Beijing 100045 ; China) ; Cheng Jia
- 刊名：Acta Seismologica Sinica
- 出版年：2010
- 卷期：32(5)
- 关键词：加卸载响应比 ; load-unload response ratio ; 地震预测 ; earthquake prediction
- 页码：p.517-528
- 图表：illus., 45 refs.
- 分类号：0500
- issnNo：ISSN0253-3782
- isbnNo：CN11-2021/P
摘要
The load/unload response ratio (LURR) is a short-to-intermediate-term earthquake prediction method. Previous studies have indicated that the size of critical seismogenic region selected for LURR measurements has great influence on the evaluation of LURR. The authors replace the circular region usually adopted in LURR practice with an area, within which the tectonic stress change would mostly affect the Coulomb stress on a potential seismogenic fault of a future event. This new algorithm is devised to improve the predictive power of the LURR method. The Coulomb stress change before a hypothetical earthquake is calculated based on a simple back-slip dislocation model of the event. Retrospective tests of the algorithm on four M>6.5 earthquakes occurred in California over the last two decades and the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, show that the anomalies produced by the Coulomb stress algorithm look more prominent than the ones produced by the circular region algorithm. Moreover, the Coulomb stress algorithm seems to be more sensitive for detecting future earthquakes of particular magnitude range and location than the circular region algorithm.